InterOil (IOC) under heavy pressure on PNG election delays, major downgrade

From StreetInsider.com

Shares of InterOil Corp. (NYSE: IOC) are getting hammered early Thursday after long-time bull Pavel Molchanov at Raymond James flipped on the stock and downgraded it.

Molchanov took his rating from Outperform to Market Perform citing a vote by Papua New Guinea's (PNG) parliament to postpone the country's general election by six months. 

He notes that this is entirely beyond the company's control and management cannot be held responsible. Nonetheless, it is a major setback.

The analyst said he was "stunned by this news," as this has never happened before in PNG's history.

He cites three specific consequences that could be negative for InterOil.

1. given management's prior insistence that the election would be a catalyst for getting LNG project approval from the government, this appears to create an additional six-month delay until the final investment decision.

2. the explicit threat of economic sanctions from Australia (and perhaps other countries too) could scare away prospective partners.

3. Third, and most importantly, the damage to PNG's reputation as a stable, democratic country could be severe, and at a minimum it raises the relevance of "country risk" in how investors perceive the InterOil story.

Molchanov also removed his $80 price target and is taking a wait-and-see approach. Despite this, his proved NAV estimate remains $103 per share, and he sees no reason to change it at this time.

Shares of IOC are down 11 percent to $49.49 on the election delays and downgrade.

Belden Namah warns Australia after poll delayed

From Sydney Morning Herald and AAP

PAPUA NEW GUINEA'S decision to delay national elections by six months has raised concerns in Canberra and prompted questions in Port Moresby about the constitutionality of the move.

 A vote in the national parliament, by 63 to 11, in favour of the delay came yesterday with a blunt warning to Australia from the Deputy Prime Minister, Belden Namah, not to interfere.

 ''Whatever [the Foreign Affairs Minister] Mr Bob Carr says about sanctions, I want to say … do not threaten the independent state of PNG,'' he said. 

''You must respect our wishes. You must not intrude into our election process.''

"Whatever [the Foreign Affairs Minister] Mr Bob Carr says about sanctions, I want to say ... do not threaten the independent state of PNG" ... Deputy Prime Minister Beldan Namah. Photo: Jason South

The Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, said last night that Canberra was ''disappointed and concerned'' by the delay. She said that ''as a strong supporter of Papua New Guinea, Australia believes elections should be held on time, in accordance with the constitution''.

 Last month Senator Carr threatened to consider sanctions against PNG if it abandoned plans to hold elections in June, saying that to do so would create a ''shocking model'' for the Pacific.

 Later he said he was speaking hypothetically and Australian officials said assurances had been received from the PNG Prime Minister, Peter O'Neill, that the election would take place in late June as scheduled.

 The election postponement followed a vote by parliament on Wednesday to suspend the Chief Justice, Sir Salamo Injia, and another top judge, under a controversial new law that drew a large student protest in Port Moresby and was criticised by veteran politicians as damaging the independence of the judiciary.

 The O'Neill government is still facing court hearings on complaints from the former government of the independence leader Sir Michael Somare that it was illegally ousted last year.

 Sir Michael was declared to have forfeited his seat through non-attendance while undergoing lengthy treatment in a Singapore hospital.

 Officials familiar with PNG elections say a six-month delay appears unconstitutional. The constitution stipulates elections be held within three months before the fifth anniversary of the return of writs from the previous election. This would give at most a few weeks' leeway.

 Before the vote, the minister assisting the Prime Minister on electoral matters, Waka Goi, said election funding fell short by about $30 million, electoral rolls were not ready and police were also not ready to provide security.

 Mr Namah said polls must be delayed to allow for proper security to be implemented in the Southern Highlands region, where construction is under way to bring natural gas by pipeline to a liquefaction plant on the coast.

 But election officials say the rolls are in comparable shape to those used before the last elections in 2007.

 Security is a perennial problem in the highlands provinces but has never delayed elections since independence in 1975.

 The PNG Electoral Commissioner, Andrew Trawen, recently said the updating of electoral rolls was progressing well and would be delivered on time for polling on the tentative date of June 23.

 ''Planning, preparing and conducting an election is the sole constitutional duty of the Electoral Commission every five years and we are confident of complete updating the roll and delivering another successful election in June,'' he said.

Oil Search mulls joint ventures for Papua New Guinea LNG project

 From AAP

OIL Search today said its massive drilling activities in the Gulf of Papua were drawing strong interest from major energy companies seeking to be a part of the project.

One of Australia's largest oil and gas companies, Oil Search said it will spend more than $US2.2 billion ($2.05bn) in 2012 on the largest drilling program in its history, the $15.7bn PNG LNG development.

Oil Search is a joint-venture partner in the project with Exxon Mobil.

Construction for the project would be well advanced by the end of 2012, and offshore drilling was scheduled to begin by December, Oil Search managing director Peter Botten said in the company's annual report, released today.

Peter Botten

As Oil Search does not have experience in operating highly complex LNG facilities, farm-in discussions are under way with a number of selected potential partners, all with world class LNG expertise," he said.

"The company has received strong interest from companies wishing to consider this opportunity."

Mr Botten indicated in February that Talisman and Shell were prospective partners in the LNG project.

The level of resources around the PNG LNG fields should be known after the first phase of drilling by early 2013, he said in the report.

Mr Botten received $US4.4 million in remuneration for the 2011 calendar year, down from $US5.04m in the previous year, the annual report showed.

Oil Search said profit rose 9 per cent to $196.2m in 2011, on an annual comparison.

Shares in Oil Search this afternoon rose 1.16 per cent at $7, as the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index was down 0.3 per cent

Nambawan Super posts K24 million net profit for 2011

Nambawan Super Ltd has posted a net after tax profit of K24 million compared to K263 million for the corresponding period in 2010.  

“It is not the best outcome but still a good outcome,” said Sir Nagora Bogan, chairman of the board of Nambawan Super when announcing the financial results for the fund for the financial year ending December 31, 2011.

Sir Nagora Bogan

“This is a good outcome considering the volatility in performance of some of the assets in its investment portfolio which are subjected to global market factors.

 “This result enabled the board to decide on an interest crediting rate of 2% for our members compared to 10% in 2010. 

 “This crediting rate is marginally higher than the interest rate on funds deposited in commercial banks which is about 1%.

 “This is also a solid performance considering some funds globally including in Australia have been experiencing negative growth. 

 “The board has set a reserve level of 1.32%.

 “The interest has already been credited to members’ accounts including in the accounts of our growing number of RSA members.”

 Reflecting in hindsight,  Sir Nagora said it was not realistic to expect a continuous run of double digit interest in a global market place adversely affected by the global financial crisis,  the impact of depressed economic conditions of countries in Europe and exchange rate volatility.

 In fact, the board of the fund had recognized this fact and had taken the prudential step to have an overarching investment objective in its revised investment strategy which is “to provide an after-tax return of at least +2% above CPI with negative returns in no more than one in five years”.

 “The board has also consistently cautioned members, over past seven years, not to expect a continuous run of double digit interest,” Sir Nagora said.

 “In 2011, we faced many challenges from investment markets, and we were reminded that prices do not always rise, and how important it is to have a diversified portfolio of investments to mitigate risks.

 “Locally, our share market had a generally quiet year, with share prices moderating after several years of strong returns.

 “The days of double digit returns are behind us, and in 2011 we were reminded of that.

 “Our offshore investments were severely affected by the appreciation of the PNG Kina over 2011, which rose against most currencies by some 23% over the year.

 “This immediately resulted in a fall in the value if our overseas investments by this amount.

 “Some members will have only experienced the very strong returns of the past few years, and many of you will have experienced the strong returns of the past decade.

 “In any case, it is worth considering the return over the past year, in the context of the longer term and implications for their retirement benefits.”

 Sir Nagora said: “Nambawan Super Ltd is a proud Papua New Guinea institution.

 “Over the past decade, Nambawan Super has invested on your behalf in a diversified portfolio including property, bank deposits and in blue chip PNG companies such as Bank of South Pacific and South Pacific Brewery.  

 “More than 80% of the fund’s investments continue to be invested locally, benefiting not only members through strong returns but also our country through employment generation, growth in investments, retention of capital and wealth creation. 

 “We will continue to have a majority of members’ funds invested in PNG assets, as we see a strong long term outlook for PNG and also to minimise exchange rate risks associated with investing offshore.”

Nasfund 2011 financial report delayed because of K125m investment

By MALUM NALU

Nasfund’s audit of financial accounts for 2011 has been delayed because of the controversial K125 million Sovereign Community Infrastructure Treasury Bill (SCITB) investment, according to board chairman Mel Togolo.

Mel Togolo

This means that members will have to wait until at least the end of this month to hear the 2011 audited financial report.

Togolo said yesterday the Nasfund board expected the 2011 sign-off to occur on or before April 30, 2012, and not the end of March as it had initially anticipated.

“The reason for this delay is to do with outstanding matters pertaining to the K125 million Sovereign Community Infrastructure Treasury Bill (SCITB) investment,” he said.

“The board is in close consultation with our regulator, the Bank of Papua New Guinea and the Department of Treasury to agree on the treatment of this investment in conformity to internationally-accepted accounting standards in our book of accounts for the said period.

“To protect the fund and members’ interests, the board agrees it is prudent to ensure all issues relating to this investment are adequately addressed and resolved before it signs off the 2011 accounts.

“The board assures members that your savings and funds are safe and intact and there is no reason to worry.”

The SCITB caused much controversy last year after a study conducted by National Research Institute categorised the treasury bills as illegal, a claim which was vehemently denied by Nasfund.

In its report released last June, the NRI said the deal was done without the approval of parliament as required by the PNG Constitution sections 13 and 14, and was not in line with the Public Finance Management Act and Bank of PNG Act, which limited government borrowing.

Treasury bills, the Nasfund board argued then, were issued under the Treasury Bill Act by signature and authority of then Treasurer and Minister for Finance Patrick Pruaitch, and co-signed by then Minister for National Planning and Development Paul Tiensten with the sponsorship of then Minister for Communications and late Kokopo MP, Patrick Tammur.

Togolo cautioned members yesterday not to expect high interest returns to be sustained forever.

“The drivers of high capital gains such as real property and local shares are showing signs of peaking and we anticipate a period of stabilisation before a market correction,” he said.

“In addition, the appreciating kina against the Australian dollar impacted our Australian-denominated investments as margins from currency exchange gains declined.

“All these factors are beyond the board’s control and influence.

“The Board regrets the inconvenience that the delay of announcing year end results is causing and assures members that a detailed statement will be made in due course.”

Today's buai pekpek (betelnut shit) in Port Moresby

Buai pekpek at Mobil Serve Station, Waigani.-Pictures@MALUM NALU

Entrance to City Pharmacy, Waigani

Entrance to City Pharmacy, Waigani

Fire at bemobile bus stop, Waigani! Only in PNG!

MPs vote for deferral of 2012 elections!

Update from Parliament: 63 MPs have voted for deferral of 2012 elections, 11 MPs against!
Time for a people power revolution?

NBC Radio reports:  Parliament has passed a motion to defer the national elections for six months.
Minster Assisting the Prime Minister on Constitutional Matters, Wake Goi moved the motion after lengthy debate on the issue.
He told parliament there's a budget shortfall of 60-million-Kina, the preliminary rolls for public inspections are not ready, and security is also not in order.
63 M-P's voted in favor of the motion and 11 voted against.
An absolute majority of 55 M-P's was needed to pass the motion.
The Electoral Commissioner will be asked to advice the Governor General to fix the new dates accordingly.
Mr. Andrew Trawen (Electoral Commissioner)  is currently in a closed door meeting.